Let's Talk About the British Elections
*NOTE: I am an American, and therefore, I am writing about this topic from the eyes and perspective of an American. I am no expert on British politics, though I will say I know more about it than most Americans. If I am factually incorrect at any point, please let me know, and I will fix my mistake. Thank you.
On Friday, June 8, 2017, Britons across the United Kingdom woke up to a hung parliament. Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to hold an election in order to increase the number of seats held by the Conservative Party backfired spectacularly. Though the Conservative Party still has the most seats in Parliament, they no longer have a majority.
This complicates many things: 1.) What party will lead the country now? 2.) How will the United Kingdom be able to negotiate a good deal for Brexit? 3.) Who will be Prime Minister? 4.) How will this affect relations among the various countries of the United Kingdom? I will do my best to answer this questions and to offer my opinion.
The Conservative Party will probably remain in power, but will now have to form a coalition with another party. They are currently trying to create a government with the Democratic Unionist Party, which is a right wing party from Northern Ireland that staunchly advocates for Northern Ireland to stay in the United Kingdom. However, this party (DUP for short) is more conservative than the Conservative Party (Tories for short).
It would be hypocritcal for the Tories to enter into a government with the DUP. The Tories heavily slammed Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, for his connections to Sinn Fein (the pro Irish Republican party), claiming he was soft on terrorism. However, the DUP originated out of a vigilante group called Ulster Protestant Action (UPA for short), which along with other pro unionist vigilante and paramilitary groups killed many innocent Irish Catholics, often at random. This has some rammifications in that it could lead to sectarian violence between the Protestant Unionists and the Irish Republicans, who only in the past 20 years signed a peace treaty (the Good Friday Agreement), ending that violence.
Meanwhile, Sinn Fein, which supports Irish reunification, has kept up its policy of abstention from Westminster, refusing to take their seats in Parliament. Sinn Fein wants nothing but the reunification of Ireland. Ironically, its policy of abstention from Westminster is giving power to its long time enemy, DUP, by making the majority threshold smaller, thus probably making DUP the kingmaker of this election - if they can form a government with the Tories. While I understand its policy and support it on principle, Sinn Fein is only hurting itself by lowering the majority threshold. For once, perhaps, Sinn Fein should take their seats to stop DUP from having some power.
As for the Labour Party - they have made great progress since the last election. They have managed to increase their share of seats from 229 to 262. They have even won seats in constituencies that they have never won before, including Kensington, Battersea, Ipswich and Canterbury, which held the world record for the longest time one party has held control of an area. This election proved Jeremy Corbyn to be a strong leader of the Labour Party and one who could bring results to the table. Many in his own party doubted him and worked very hard to stop him from leading the party, but Corbyn defied all odds and showed that a party that is plain, honest, and advocates for socialism can still win in the United Kingdom.
Does Corbyn have a chance to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? Perhaps. We will have to wait and see if the Tories and DUP can form a government, but many Tories do not like DUP because of its extreme social conservatism, especially in regards to LGBT rights and abortion, and because of its vigilante past.
I do think Corbyn has a better chance of becoming Prime Minister than Theresa May has to continue being Prime Minister. She gambled her party's majority and lost, weakening her party and the United Kingdom's position to negotiate a good deal for Brexit. Many people in her party want her to resign - but who can successfully stand up to May? As long as the Tories remain divided and weak, Corbyn has a chance to form a minority government, perhaps with the Scottish National Party (SNP for short), Plaid Cymru (Plaid for short), the Green Party (the Greens for short), and perhaps the Liberal Democrats (the Lib Dems for short).
However, there will be problems in trying to form such a rainbow coaltion. SNP, Plaid, and the Greens are all willing to form a coalition with Labour, however the Lib Dems are not. After a brutal beating during the 2015 U.K. elections, in which the Lib Dems went from 57 seats to 8 seats, the Lib Dems have been scared into not wanting to form any coalitions with other parties, after forming a coalition with the Tories in the 2010 U.K. elections. However, the Lib Dems only chance for power is by joining a coalition. People vote for a candidate because they want results, and if the Lib Dems can't get any results without cooperation, which they can't as a party that holds 12 seats out of 650 total, they will only continue to lose seats in Parliament to parties like Labour and SNP, who are mor pragmatic and have better track records.
SNP poses a problem for Labour because they have advocated for another independence referendum. However, their advocacy lead to SNP losing 21 seats in Parliament, so their advocacy would be weakend. Furthermore, SNP is against Brexit, while Labour advocates for a soft Brexit, meaning while they did not support Brexit, they respect the results of that referendum and would like to see a good deal be reached from it. If the two parties can be pragmatic, then perhaps they can form a government together.
However, it also seems likely that another election will be held if the Tories can't form a government with DUP. Even if they succeed, their majority would be very weakend and their would probably be some rebellious MPs who will side with Labour and the other left parties on certain areas like Brexit.
All and all, Theresa May has failed to delivier on her promise of a "strong and stable" government, instead offering only uncertainty and fear. Only time can tell what happens next.
On Friday, June 8, 2017, Britons across the United Kingdom woke up to a hung parliament. Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to hold an election in order to increase the number of seats held by the Conservative Party backfired spectacularly. Though the Conservative Party still has the most seats in Parliament, they no longer have a majority.
This complicates many things: 1.) What party will lead the country now? 2.) How will the United Kingdom be able to negotiate a good deal for Brexit? 3.) Who will be Prime Minister? 4.) How will this affect relations among the various countries of the United Kingdom? I will do my best to answer this questions and to offer my opinion.
The Conservative Party will probably remain in power, but will now have to form a coalition with another party. They are currently trying to create a government with the Democratic Unionist Party, which is a right wing party from Northern Ireland that staunchly advocates for Northern Ireland to stay in the United Kingdom. However, this party (DUP for short) is more conservative than the Conservative Party (Tories for short).
It would be hypocritcal for the Tories to enter into a government with the DUP. The Tories heavily slammed Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, for his connections to Sinn Fein (the pro Irish Republican party), claiming he was soft on terrorism. However, the DUP originated out of a vigilante group called Ulster Protestant Action (UPA for short), which along with other pro unionist vigilante and paramilitary groups killed many innocent Irish Catholics, often at random. This has some rammifications in that it could lead to sectarian violence between the Protestant Unionists and the Irish Republicans, who only in the past 20 years signed a peace treaty (the Good Friday Agreement), ending that violence.
Meanwhile, Sinn Fein, which supports Irish reunification, has kept up its policy of abstention from Westminster, refusing to take their seats in Parliament. Sinn Fein wants nothing but the reunification of Ireland. Ironically, its policy of abstention from Westminster is giving power to its long time enemy, DUP, by making the majority threshold smaller, thus probably making DUP the kingmaker of this election - if they can form a government with the Tories. While I understand its policy and support it on principle, Sinn Fein is only hurting itself by lowering the majority threshold. For once, perhaps, Sinn Fein should take their seats to stop DUP from having some power.
As for the Labour Party - they have made great progress since the last election. They have managed to increase their share of seats from 229 to 262. They have even won seats in constituencies that they have never won before, including Kensington, Battersea, Ipswich and Canterbury, which held the world record for the longest time one party has held control of an area. This election proved Jeremy Corbyn to be a strong leader of the Labour Party and one who could bring results to the table. Many in his own party doubted him and worked very hard to stop him from leading the party, but Corbyn defied all odds and showed that a party that is plain, honest, and advocates for socialism can still win in the United Kingdom.
Does Corbyn have a chance to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? Perhaps. We will have to wait and see if the Tories and DUP can form a government, but many Tories do not like DUP because of its extreme social conservatism, especially in regards to LGBT rights and abortion, and because of its vigilante past.
I do think Corbyn has a better chance of becoming Prime Minister than Theresa May has to continue being Prime Minister. She gambled her party's majority and lost, weakening her party and the United Kingdom's position to negotiate a good deal for Brexit. Many people in her party want her to resign - but who can successfully stand up to May? As long as the Tories remain divided and weak, Corbyn has a chance to form a minority government, perhaps with the Scottish National Party (SNP for short), Plaid Cymru (Plaid for short), the Green Party (the Greens for short), and perhaps the Liberal Democrats (the Lib Dems for short).
However, there will be problems in trying to form such a rainbow coaltion. SNP, Plaid, and the Greens are all willing to form a coalition with Labour, however the Lib Dems are not. After a brutal beating during the 2015 U.K. elections, in which the Lib Dems went from 57 seats to 8 seats, the Lib Dems have been scared into not wanting to form any coalitions with other parties, after forming a coalition with the Tories in the 2010 U.K. elections. However, the Lib Dems only chance for power is by joining a coalition. People vote for a candidate because they want results, and if the Lib Dems can't get any results without cooperation, which they can't as a party that holds 12 seats out of 650 total, they will only continue to lose seats in Parliament to parties like Labour and SNP, who are mor pragmatic and have better track records.
SNP poses a problem for Labour because they have advocated for another independence referendum. However, their advocacy lead to SNP losing 21 seats in Parliament, so their advocacy would be weakend. Furthermore, SNP is against Brexit, while Labour advocates for a soft Brexit, meaning while they did not support Brexit, they respect the results of that referendum and would like to see a good deal be reached from it. If the two parties can be pragmatic, then perhaps they can form a government together.
However, it also seems likely that another election will be held if the Tories can't form a government with DUP. Even if they succeed, their majority would be very weakend and their would probably be some rebellious MPs who will side with Labour and the other left parties on certain areas like Brexit.
All and all, Theresa May has failed to delivier on her promise of a "strong and stable" government, instead offering only uncertainty and fear. Only time can tell what happens next.
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